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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com2 I) b$ g! G# \
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.- J4 I' A N( U4 J/ W
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% j; [4 A' n* H. XThu, January 11, 20076 y$ T2 }8 B" b
4 i. }9 i' Z' @) ]8 `: ZPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20077 o, s: n) H$ x$ {
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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Y7 _$ W" `. ?1 u5 qThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ) {- X. ]! j; h( W5 P* w
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 3 q" P& d) u% d& l+ e
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. # W" u) b3 Z0 c! p; \( W
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, _4 g1 H2 V' A' C/ z: g. }' \ o |"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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, P5 a: e9 |% }+ d0 bShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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) _. x! o6 r& u"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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7 e5 m6 w+ }) ~/ w4 y0 E+ F' O% TCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. & `( o! ~+ [' n5 H5 i& i& }
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ( _! U; K7 b7 H+ k3 S" x
x9 B5 f( ^. g0 [3 [Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 7 |! n# v, @. ^
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ; c2 @- L+ L# Q- i0 ]. {: j
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. $ d' x4 |6 L* O6 i' k9 t2 {
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9 g( N/ E8 Y1 ?* i% W1 ^He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. $ i4 `9 N- {2 v3 X9 }3 x- J
" {, J6 d! {0 |1 v& b# u- oOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. $ H9 X" s6 N" c3 }: C( q+ C ]
' {$ M X! B5 Q% n2 ~5 p"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. / Y9 X- d- t: W* T# ~3 i; ^" [# R! `; \ x
* z* l6 ?; ~% p! L/ s/ ZYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ! N1 J: |4 X) S( R: P
; q& u. w1 ]. ?6 d, YLet the good times roll. / M* T2 @6 N7 ^# P
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
