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$ _, d% A, j. J' i2 i; e Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007% B/ I0 |. J" m5 V- |" `
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 5 a3 p$ q- j) T/ ^3 \
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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" A) C9 L, b- T8 a! S- M0 R; RBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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2 H4 s: Y1 P! ?/ ?Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 7 s g6 E# l0 m# R5 l- `" q' Y
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& B9 n& K, h/ }& r"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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2 l" J s9 ^% b# {- E% Z6 QShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. + b' v7 k# N7 |( A5 H$ Y0 M. k: p# R
! s1 J+ [% o! \* Y( h% Q"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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# u* w; x `, G+ o# E/ E7 t8 UCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." " [ s: V8 Z( y( f$ ]( z
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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) r( u V5 r- A7 c"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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+ G1 K: E8 M- h* \1 F4 y"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. * J$ R* s' b$ q) ?5 o& ]8 S. a. f
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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5 }0 W+ H; `. w( ~2 X$ i; GExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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4 U& e6 x* c" v# COver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. - J1 s. b: C1 { {
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 ~3 L& X8 ]1 J6 O) m
& b! |1 e; g4 ~& t7 N% z' w/ [So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. / |$ K2 h1 q4 @/ \: z
& u! d! a0 Z( q5 R9 `5 aYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 9 G* {$ R2 X1 w8 A; z; C
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. / ~4 d6 P- A; H- V3 l' L
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Let the good times roll.
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4 l& u% E L" QPrevious story: Bottom Line2 r: ~% Z, d- N- r _/ ^
Next story: Building permits hit record
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